The Brazilian financial market dawned under tension on Wednesday (23). The U.S. currency was traded high before the real currency, reaching R$ 5.17, while the Ibovespa, the main index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange, started to retreat more strongly throughout the morning.

On the external side, the price of the Brent oil barrel, international reference, rose about 1% and again operated over $100, quoted at $100.24 around 9:00 a.m. (Beria time). This movement directly puts pressure on fuel, transport, and chain costs on various sectors of the economy, rekindling inflation concerns.

In Brazil, investors also reacted to the release of new electoral research for the presidential race. According to the Power360, recent survey points to a technical tie in the second round between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, both with 43% of the voting intentions. Scenarios of fierce dispute tend to increase the perception of political risk, which usually weighs on exchange rate and stock exchange.

With an almost empty domestic agenda of economic indicators for the day, the mood of the market became even more dependent on these two factors: oil rising out there and electoral uncertainty here. Analysts estimate that if the price of crude oil remains close to $100, the Central Bank may have less room to accelerate interest cuts, as the most expensive fuel tends to reflect on consumer prices.

For the common investor, the practical message is clear: days of volatility like this require caution. Sudden movements of the dollar and the stock exchange do not necessarily mean change of trend, but show that the market is sensitive to political news and the global commodity scenario.