Probability Analysis of Drops in Eclesiar

Understanding the system to maximize rewards

In Eclesiar, many players believe that rewards and equipment obtained after battles are purely based on luck.

In reality, most reward systems rely on probability mechanics.

Understanding these probabilities can help players maximize their chances of obtaining rare equipment.

How a Drop System Works

Most online strategy games use what is called a drop table.

A drop table lists all possible items with their associated probabilities.

Example:

Each time a reward is generated, the game performs a random roll based on these probabilities.

Probability Over Time

Many players say:

“I did 20 battles and got nothing.”

However, probability does not guarantee results in the short term.

If a rare item has a 1% drop rate, it means:

• 1 chance out of 100 per attempt

• but not necessarily one drop every 100 battles

A player might obtain a rare item after 5 battles or after 300.

But over a very large number of attempts, the results tend to approach the expected probability.

Cumulative Probability

The chance of obtaining an item increases with more attempts.

Example with a 1% rare drop rate:

This demonstrates an important concept:

consistency beats luck.

Why Some Players Get More Rare Items

Three main factors explain this.

Activity

More battles mean more probability rolls.

More rolls = more chances.

Wars

Wars generate a large number of battles and therefore many drop opportunities.

Play volume

A player doing:

20 battles per day
will perform roughly

600 battles per month.

With a 1% rare drop rate, this statistically means:

around 6 rare items per month on average.

Strategy Used by Experienced Players

Top players usually follow a simple strategy:

1. maximize actions that generate drops

2. participate in major wars

3. sell excess items on the market

4. reinvest profits into equipment

Over time, this creates a snowball economic effect.

Conclusion

In Eclesiar, rare equipment is not just about luck.

It is mainly the result of:

• consistency

• activity

• understanding probability mechanics

The most successful players understand one key rule:

the more drop rolls you generate, the higher your chances.